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| Dance of the Fandango Cucaracha |
The Iran-backed Houthi insurgents of Yemen have apparently decided that controlling a country was not ambitious enough. On Friday, they declared that they had seized Perim, a small volcanic island sitting in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most important shipping chokepoints connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
Because when you're an Iranian proxy militia, nothing says "regional stability" quite like grabbing strategically important real estate in the middle of an international shipping lane.
The announcement came just one day after the Houthis seized the port city of Mokha with assistance from Iran.
Sources within Yemen's internationally recognized, but largely exiled, government confirmed the Houthi takeover of Perim. They also said the insurgents had seized Dhubab, the port city closest to the island.
Saudi Arabia, which supports Yemen's government and has a rather obvious interest in keeping the Red Sea open for its oil shipments, responded Friday by launching airstrikes against the airport in Mokha.
It remained unclear whether those airstrikes would be followed by the slightly more complicated step of actually trying to take the city back.
Maj. Gen. Tareq Saleh, a commander in the Yemeni government's armed forces, said he was forced to order a "strategic retreat" from the Houthi advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb area.
"The armed forces in the western coast paid a heavy price — martyrs and wounded — over the past days as they confronted the Houthi attack planned by Iran, and supported by it," he said.
Apparently "strategic retreat" is the Middle Eastern military equivalent of "We are going to let them have this one."
A senior Yemeni military official told the Associated Press that his government was "stunned that the Saudi air force did not try to prevent the capture of Mokha" by "striking the Houthis as they advanced."
The official suspected the Saudis needed American approval for such defensive airstrikes and never got it. He also blamed a "lack of coordination" among forces allied with his government, giving the Houthis a "priceless opportunity" to seize strategically important coastal territory.
Nothing says geopolitical competence quite like watching an enemy advance toward a critical shipping chokepoint while everyone waits for someone else to make a phone call.
According to Axios, Saudi Arabia's de facto chief executive, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, personally called President Donald Trump twice on Thursday and "urged him to launch strikes against the Houthis."
Trump reportedly declined, at least partly because his administration does not want the United States dragged directly into Yemen's long and exceptionally ugly civil war, which has now been going on for more than 12 years.
U.S. officials reportedly told their Saudi counterparts that Trump wants American forces concentrating on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Which, considering the Middle East currently has enough potential flashpoints to fill a large military planner's worst nightmare, is probably not the craziest position in Washington this week.
Another problem for Yemen's government is that it has lost the support of the United Arab Emirates, which fell out with Saudi Arabia in January over UAE support for a separatist faction in southern Yemen known as the Southern Transitional Council, or STC.
The STC had proven to be an effective anti-Houthi force. Unfortunately, it also had the minor disadvantage of being at odds with the Presidential Leadership Council, the Yemeni government supported by Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis forced the UAE out of Yemen, and the STC subsequently decided it wasn't interested in fighting outside the territory it hopes to separate from the rest of Yemen.
So, to recap, the anti-Houthi coalition has managed to become sufficiently divided that the Houthis are now taking strategic territory while everyone else sorts out who is supposed to be fighting whom.
Iran, naturally, is thrilled.
Tehran has been desperate to open another front in the conflict and increase economic pressure on the United States and its allies. On Friday, Iran demanded that Saudi Arabia end its "blockade" of Yemen and return to peace negotiations with the Houthis.
A spokesman for Iran's terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps then raised the stakes by saying any future negotiations with the United States should include Yemen as well as Lebanon, another country where Iranian proxy forces are active.
Because nothing says "peace talks" like showing up with a shopping list of additional countries where you've helped create disasters.
The Houthis, meanwhile, insisted Friday that they don't intend to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all international shipping. Apparently Saudi Arabia is the only customer they have in mind.
"Freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab are safe and orderly," promised Houthi Politburo member Hazem al-Assad.
This is certainly reassuring, assuming one has recently suffered a severe head injury.
Oil markets aren't nearly as confident.
Losing the Saudi oil shipments moving through the Red Sea would be a significant blow to the global economy. There is also the small matter of the Houthi track record when it comes to attacking ships. Their definition of "we only target the ships we mean to target" has not always inspired universal confidence.
Benchmark oil prices surged above $100 per barrel this week before retreating somewhat Friday, still finishing the week up 9 percent. Saudi oil exports were down 23 percent in August, falling to their lowest level since 1990.
"Once again, it is geopolitical fears driving everything," said Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank on Friday morning.
"In terms of the latest Middle East headlines, yesterday saw growing concerns over the safety of Red Sea shipping, and the potential knock-on effects for Saudi oil exports, as Houthi rebels captured Yemen’s port city of Mokha, which is located close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the southern end of the Red Sea, Reid said.
The Houthis have also continued attacking Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure directly, despite warnings from Pakistan that it might intervene to defend the Saudis under the trilateral Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed in August 2026 between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
Then came another ominous development.
Satellite images prompted as-yet unconfirmed reports Friday that the Houthis had attacked Saudi Arabia's vital East-West oil pipeline, a 750-mile artery carrying crude from refineries in Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The Houthis have targeted the pipeline before during clashes with Saudi Arabia. Following an April attack, the Saudis repaired the line and increased its capacity to approximately 7 million barrels per day.
Yanbu has been loading roughly 3.7 million barrels per day since the beginning of September as Saudi Arabia attempts to route more of its oil exports away from the increasingly problematic Strait of Hormuz.
Satellite imagery showed a massive plume of smoke, but the Saudi government has not confirmed an attack on the East-West Pipeline or provided details about possible damage.
For now, then, the situation is still developing.
But Iran has its proxies advancing, the Houthis are sitting on increasingly valuable territory, Saudi Arabia is trying to protect its oil routes, Yemen's government is retreating, America's allies are asking Washington what to do, and oil traders are watching all of it while reaching for the antacids.
In other words, just another quiet Friday in the neighborhood.
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Because when you're an Iranian proxy militia, nothing says "regional stability" quite like grabbing strategically important real estate in the middle of an international shipping lane.
The announcement came just one day after the Houthis seized the port city of Mokha with assistance from Iran.
Sources within Yemen's internationally recognized, but largely exiled, government confirmed the Houthi takeover of Perim. They also said the insurgents had seized Dhubab, the port city closest to the island.
Saudi Arabia, which supports Yemen's government and has a rather obvious interest in keeping the Red Sea open for its oil shipments, responded Friday by launching airstrikes against the airport in Mokha.
It remained unclear whether those airstrikes would be followed by the slightly more complicated step of actually trying to take the city back.
Maj. Gen. Tareq Saleh, a commander in the Yemeni government's armed forces, said he was forced to order a "strategic retreat" from the Houthi advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb area.
"The armed forces in the western coast paid a heavy price — martyrs and wounded — over the past days as they confronted the Houthi attack planned by Iran, and supported by it," he said.
Apparently "strategic retreat" is the Middle Eastern military equivalent of "We are going to let them have this one."
A senior Yemeni military official told the Associated Press that his government was "stunned that the Saudi air force did not try to prevent the capture of Mokha" by "striking the Houthis as they advanced."
The official suspected the Saudis needed American approval for such defensive airstrikes and never got it. He also blamed a "lack of coordination" among forces allied with his government, giving the Houthis a "priceless opportunity" to seize strategically important coastal territory.
Nothing says geopolitical competence quite like watching an enemy advance toward a critical shipping chokepoint while everyone waits for someone else to make a phone call.
According to Axios, Saudi Arabia's de facto chief executive, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, personally called President Donald Trump twice on Thursday and "urged him to launch strikes against the Houthis."
Trump reportedly declined, at least partly because his administration does not want the United States dragged directly into Yemen's long and exceptionally ugly civil war, which has now been going on for more than 12 years.
U.S. officials reportedly told their Saudi counterparts that Trump wants American forces concentrating on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Which, considering the Middle East currently has enough potential flashpoints to fill a large military planner's worst nightmare, is probably not the craziest position in Washington this week.
Another problem for Yemen's government is that it has lost the support of the United Arab Emirates, which fell out with Saudi Arabia in January over UAE support for a separatist faction in southern Yemen known as the Southern Transitional Council, or STC.
The STC had proven to be an effective anti-Houthi force. Unfortunately, it also had the minor disadvantage of being at odds with the Presidential Leadership Council, the Yemeni government supported by Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis forced the UAE out of Yemen, and the STC subsequently decided it wasn't interested in fighting outside the territory it hopes to separate from the rest of Yemen.
So, to recap, the anti-Houthi coalition has managed to become sufficiently divided that the Houthis are now taking strategic territory while everyone else sorts out who is supposed to be fighting whom.
Iran, naturally, is thrilled.
Tehran has been desperate to open another front in the conflict and increase economic pressure on the United States and its allies. On Friday, Iran demanded that Saudi Arabia end its "blockade" of Yemen and return to peace negotiations with the Houthis.
A spokesman for Iran's terrorist Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps then raised the stakes by saying any future negotiations with the United States should include Yemen as well as Lebanon, another country where Iranian proxy forces are active.
Because nothing says "peace talks" like showing up with a shopping list of additional countries where you've helped create disasters.
The Houthis, meanwhile, insisted Friday that they don't intend to shut down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all international shipping. Apparently Saudi Arabia is the only customer they have in mind.
"Freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab are safe and orderly," promised Houthi Politburo member Hazem al-Assad.
This is certainly reassuring, assuming one has recently suffered a severe head injury.
Oil markets aren't nearly as confident.
Losing the Saudi oil shipments moving through the Red Sea would be a significant blow to the global economy. There is also the small matter of the Houthi track record when it comes to attacking ships. Their definition of "we only target the ships we mean to target" has not always inspired universal confidence.
Benchmark oil prices surged above $100 per barrel this week before retreating somewhat Friday, still finishing the week up 9 percent. Saudi oil exports were down 23 percent in August, falling to their lowest level since 1990.
"Once again, it is geopolitical fears driving everything," said Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank on Friday morning.
"In terms of the latest Middle East headlines, yesterday saw growing concerns over the safety of Red Sea shipping, and the potential knock-on effects for Saudi oil exports, as Houthi rebels captured Yemen’s port city of Mokha, which is located close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the southern end of the Red Sea, Reid said.
The Houthis have also continued attacking Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure directly, despite warnings from Pakistan that it might intervene to defend the Saudis under the trilateral Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed in August 2026 between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.
Then came another ominous development.
Satellite images prompted as-yet unconfirmed reports Friday that the Houthis had attacked Saudi Arabia's vital East-West oil pipeline, a 750-mile artery carrying crude from refineries in Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The Houthis have targeted the pipeline before during clashes with Saudi Arabia. Following an April attack, the Saudis repaired the line and increased its capacity to approximately 7 million barrels per day.
Yanbu has been loading roughly 3.7 million barrels per day since the beginning of September as Saudi Arabia attempts to route more of its oil exports away from the increasingly problematic Strait of Hormuz.
Satellite imagery showed a massive plume of smoke, but the Saudi government has not confirmed an attack on the East-West Pipeline or provided details about possible damage.
For now, then, the situation is still developing.
But Iran has its proxies advancing, the Houthis are sitting on increasingly valuable territory, Saudi Arabia is trying to protect its oil routes, Yemen's government is retreating, America's allies are asking Washington what to do, and oil traders are watching all of it while reaching for the antacids.
In other words, just another quiet Friday in the neighborhood.
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