Israel considers new Gaza offensive as hostage talks weaken

According to a report from Walla cited by The Jerusalem Post, the Israeli military is mulling over what could be the largest civilian displacement in Gaza since the war kicked off. That’s no small potatoes, and it’s got big implications for both the battlefield and the diplomatic chessboard. 

The Post’s Amir Bohbot lays it out: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to huddle with Defense Minister Israel Katz and IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir today, Sunday, to hash out what’s next in Gaza, including “potential steps to embark on a wider military operation differing from previous offenses.”

What’s driving this? 

The IDF’s got a ticking clock on hostage negotiations. If those talks don’t break through soon, the military’s gearing up for a broader operation. But here’s where it gets messy: inside the IDF, there’s a split. Some brass want to double down and keep pounding Hamas, while others argue the main goals are already in the bag: Hamas’s military infrastructure is toast, senior commanders (minus Gaza City Brigade Commander Izz al-Din al-Haddad, who’s still on the Shin Bet’s hit list) are gone, tunnels and weapons systems are wrecked, and Israel’s grabbed over half of Gaza’s territory. Oh, and they’ve choked off major smuggling routes from Sinai and the Mediterranean. Not exactly a bad day’s work.

But the hawks in the room aren’t quite ready to pop the champagne. They’re pushing for a full-scale ground maneuver, which would mean a massive civilian evacuation. 

Military sources told Walla that plans are in the works to move Gazans out of key areas, and here’s the kicker: with Hamas at its weakest since seizing Gaza in 2007, “a mass evacuation could turn public sentiment in Gaza against the group’s leadership.” That’s a bold play, but it’s not without risks. 

Urban warfare in Gaza’s tunnel-riddled, fortified neighborhoods would be a meat grinder, with “significant IDF casualties” expected, military officials said. And this wouldn’t be a small operation, with five fully manned divisions and a fresh wave of reserve call-ups under Tzav 8. 

The IDF’s calculus is shaped by recent history, too. A senior defense official, reflecting on Israel’s 12-day clash with Iran, put it bluntly: “The operation in Iran taught Hamas that one must also know when to end fighting.” Hamas, battered and bruised, is reportedly shifting from bullets to backroom diplomacy. But with Israel green-lighting 22 new West Bank settlements amid this Gaza fight and global chatter about a Palestinian state, the pressure’s on. 

Is this the moment to go all-in, or is it time to declare victory and pivot? Netanyahu’s got a tough call ahead, and the world’s watching.

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