Israel threatens escalation against Hezbollah amid fragile ceasefire

In a stark reminder of the tenuous peace holding southern Lebanon together, Israel has issued a fresh ultimatum to Beirut: disarm Hezbollah, or face a surge in military operations. The warning comes even as a US- and French-brokered ceasefire, now nearly a year old, has failed to quell the low-level violence simmering along the border.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid down the gauntlet on Sunday, accusing the Iran-backed militia of plotting to rebuild its arsenal in defiance of the truce. Speaking at a press conference, he framed any Israeli response as a matter of survival, insisting it would adhere strictly to the ceasefire's fine print.

"We will not allow Lebanon to become a renewed front against us, and we will act as necessary," Netanyahu said.

He went further, underscoring Israel's fierce autonomy in matters of defence. "We report to the United States but do 'not ask for permission,'" he added, "Israel maintains responsibility for its own security."

The prime minister's words landed hours after the Israeli military announced it had eliminated four Hezbollah fighters in a targeted strike – one of dozens conducted since the November 2024 accord that was meant to end 14 months of cross-border exchanges. Those clashes, which killed more than 2,000 Lebanese and displaced over a million, had drawn in Israeli ground forces and left Hezbollah reeling from the loss of its top leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah.

Yet the group endures, its fighters still embedded in Lebanon's rugged south, where Israeli troops hold several hilltop outposts overlooking the frontier. Jerusalem justifies the occupations as temporary measures to enforce the ceasefire's demilitarised zone, but Lebanese leaders decry them as a violation of sovereignty.

From Beirut's perspective, the dynamic is inverted: Israel's intermittent airstrikes – often hitting deep into civilian areas – not only undermine the truce but also bolster Hezbollah's rationale for clinging to its rockets and bunkers. Officials in the Lebanese capital have repeatedly condemned the raids for collateral damage, pointing to shattered roads, schools and hospitals as evidence of disproportionate force. "These attacks give the group a pretext to hold onto its weapons," one senior diplomat told reporters last month, echoing a familiar refrain.

The human toll since the ceasefire tells its own story. Lebanon's health ministry reports over 270 deaths and some 850 injuries from Israeli operations in the past year. The UN's human rights office, sifting through the data, has verified at least 107 civilian fatalities among them – a grim ledger that underscores the ceasefire's fragility.

As winter sets in along the Blue Line, Netanyahu's pledge of escalation hangs like a storm cloud. For now, the guns remain mostly quiet, but in this corner of the Levant, quiet has a way of shattering without warning.

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