Saturday, January 25, 2025

IDF postpones Lebanon withdrawal: it ain't over yet


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that the IDF will stay in Lebanon beyond the agreed upon 60-day deadline set by the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah.

Netanyahu’s office explained that the military withdrawal from southern Lebanon would only happen if "the Lebanese Army deploys in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforces the agreement." According to the ceasefire, it's the Lebanese Army's job to get rid of all Hezbollah facilities in southern Lebanon and stop the terrorist group from getting more weapons.

"Since the ceasefire agreement hasn't been fully carried out by the Lebanese government yet, the process of pulling our troops out will go on, but we'll do it in close cooperation with the United States," the prime minister's office stated. "Israel will not put its people or communities at risk and will push for the complete fulfillment of our war goals in Lebanon—making sure our residents can return home safely to the north."

Israel's snail-like withdrawal from Lebanon highlights a major challenge in the U.S.-led peace efforts. In both Lebanon and Gaza, Israel has agreed to cease hostilities and pull back on the condition that Iran-supported terrorist groups are cleared from its borders— Hezbollah in the north and Hamas in the south. However, it seems that only the Israeli military has both the determination and the power to enforce this requirement.

"When I sit down practically every day with the heads of the [Israel Defense Forces] and the security agencies and the prime minister and the defense minister, the picture is that we still have to be there, and we still have to hold these zones," Yuli Edelstein, the chairman of Israel’s parliamentary defense committee and a member of the ruling Likud party, told the Washington Free Beacon, referring to Gaza and southern Lebanon as well as a buffer zone that Israel seized in southern Syria after Islamist rebels overthrew the Assad regime last month. "I don’t think this is a political discussion in any of these zones. I think this is a security issue. Long-term plans can be discussed in the future, but right now, we have to make sure that the borders are safe."

"We learned the hard way on Oct. 7, 2023, what happens if the border is not safe," Edelstein added, referring to the Hamas-led surprise attack on southern Israel that started the multifront war. "We saw once again that just building a fence or even having some sensors or whatever doesn’t necessarily help. So the protection should be combined protection of everything we have, including if necessary holding the strategic points on both sides of the border."

After weeks of rumors about when Israel would leave Lebanon, Hebrew media reported on Thursday that Israeli leaders had asked the Trump administration for another 30 days. Outgoing Israeli ambassador to the U.S., Michael Herzog, told Army Radio that the administration didn't want to extend the deadline, but he added, "I believe we will reach an understanding."

By Friday afternoon, an Israeli official, who didn't want to be named, told the Free Beacon that discussions with the Trump administration on this issue were "ongoing."

"Everything has been discussed," the official said, not confirming if the delay had been approved.

A few hours later, the White House supported "a short, temporary ceasefire extension" in Lebanon.

"All parties share the goal of ensuring Hezbollah does not have the ability to threaten the Lebanese people or their neighbors. To achieve these goals, a short, temporary ceasefire extension is urgently needed," said Brian Hughes, a White House National Security Council spokesman. "We are pleased that the IDF has started the withdrawal from the central regions, and we continue to work closely with our regional partners to finalize the extension."

Neither the Lebanese government nor Hezbollah have responded yet. However, Hezbollah stated on Thursday that any delay in Israel’s withdrawal would be unacceptable, warning that it would see such a "breach" as "a blatant violation of the agreement, an attack on Lebanese sovereignty and the beginning of a new chapter of occupation."

Israel moved into southern Lebanon in late September after nearly a year of daily rocket attacks by Hezbollah, which led to the evacuation of many Israelis living near the northern border. Israeli forces discovered and destroyed terrorist setups near the border, including some designed for attacks similar to those on October 7.

After Trump's election in November, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, which has been unstable with Israel claiming Hezbollah has violated it hundreds of times. Andrea Tenenti, who speaks for UNIFIL, the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, told the New York Times on Friday that Israel still held about 70 percent of the areas it had taken.

On Friday evening, the Israeli military stated it was "continuing to operate in accordance with the ceasefire understandings between Israel and Lebanon."

"The IDF remains deployed in southern Lebanon, continues to monitor Hezbollah’s attempts to return to southern Lebanon, and will operate against any threat posed to IDF troops and the State of Israel," the military said, mentioning recent airstrikes and ground operations aimed at "removing threats" like Hezbollah's weapon stores and lookout points.

Edelstein stated that Israel was sticking to the ceasefire agreement and was hopeful that the Lebanese Army would do its part to enforce the deal. However, he was skeptical, saying, "the chances are not very high at this stage that the Lebanese Army will be effective."

Amir Avivi, who used to be a high-ranking Israeli military official, told the Free Beacon that in his Tuesday meeting with Defense Minister Israel Katz, Katz was already set on keeping soldiers in southern Lebanon, as well as in Gaza and Syria.

"As long as the Lebanese Army does not deploy in southern Lebanon, Israel is going to stay. There might be a withdrawal from specific points. But overall, Israel’s interest is to maintain a buffer zone of two to three kilometers on the Lebanese side of the border," Avivi explained. "The plan is basically to stay in all the buffer zones. There is an understanding that we need to be in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria for at least the rest of this year, because this is the best way to defend the Israeli border."

Unlike Israel's occupation of Lebanon from 1982 to 2000, which many saw as a failure, Avivi noted that the new buffer zones would be narrow military-only areas, saying, "no civilians, no houses, nothing."

A Katz spokesman and a Defense Ministry spokeswoman chose not to comment.

Edelstein, Avivi, and other Israeli military officials, both current and former, told the Free Beacon that Israel might have to pull out of Gaza completely or partially under a hostage-ceasefire agreement with Hamas that started on Saturday. They agreed that during any withdrawal, Israel could keep a buffer zone from its side of Gaza’s border. But in the end, they believed the military would need to re-enter Gaza strongly to oust Hamas from control.

"I would say the chances are high that in the near future there will be no alternative to Israel enforcing security and preventing Hamas from reorganizing," Edelstein said. "It doesn’t mean that we are not searching for some other force to rule Gaza, but there are not too many volunteers. I guess Gaza doesn’t have a very good reputation in the Arab world."

Eran Ortal, who retired last year as head of the Israeli military’s Dado Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies, told the Free Beacon that a long-term occupation of Gaza was "absurdly opposite to Israel’s national security strategy." Yet, he argued, it was necessary.

"In our neighborhood, no one who does Oct. 7 should remain a living actor," Ortal said. "It’s just too dangerous. We’re going to be facing copycat attempts for decades to come, and if we want to limit that phenomenon, Hamas should be annihilated from the earth."

On Friday, Israel agreed to Hamas’s proposal to release four young women hostages, even though the list went against Hamas's promise to first free all living female civilians, according to Israel's Channel 12 news. Hamas cited technical issues for the breach. The four women to be released are soldiers captured when Hamas attacked an Israeli surveillance base on October 7.

Hamas has committed to releasing 33 female hostages over the first 42 days of the ceasefire, in exchange for up to 1,904 Palestinian prisoners, including those convicted of killing Israelis. In the initial exchange on Sunday, Hamas freed three female civilians, leaving 91 hostages in captivity, with 57 thought to be alive, and Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners. A second phase of the ceasefire could involve freeing all remaining hostages and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

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